I believe I have seen the forest through the trees this morning, sitting here contemplating any further moves for GW3. Yesterday I wrote about midweek options, concluding the best option was to stand pat. Overnight, I reconsidered taking a -4 point hit, but it wasn’t until this morning I started interpolating the data.
Using the RMT tool at Fantasy Football Scout, I entered my 15-man squad based on my team ID. The results for the next 6 weeks weren’t overly surprising. Gameweek 3 and Gameweek 8 were the highest anticipated scores; 60.89 and 60.14, adding 342.99 points to my overall score, currently 96 points. This would be a weekly average of 54.87 points, well under my goal of 60 points/week.
Having already moved KDB in favor of Christian Eriksen, is there a -4 point hit that would make sense heading into the international break? Left with just two options, wanting to post just a -4 point hit, Antonio Valencia and Vincent Kompany top the list. Is it really wise to part with either defender so early in the season?
Using the Season Ticker, we can see the next 6 weeks for my defenders. Chelsea is also included, as Marcos Alonso would be the next player I introduce. So’ton and Man United both have strong fixtures through Gameweek 8. So’ton does face Man United in Gameweek 6, while United visits Liverpool in Gameweek 8. Man City has under performed to start this term at both ends of the pitch. At £6.0m Kompany would face Liverpool and Chelsea after the international break.
Valencia tops the group but more surprising, Alonso is third best with 22.18 points. Bertrand positioned second has the best schedule in the next 3 weeks, which could account for the high potential of clean sheets. Chelsea could face a stout match against Everton this weekend, but as attacking as Alonso has been, it could be another good weekend for the wing back.
Having already jettisoned KDB on Monday, in order to keep the point hit to -4, Kompany would have to give way. This would also be the fixture that Pep & Co. right the ship and fire on all cylinders and thump Bournemouth away. I feel the attacking returns, are higher with Alonso, especially being on free kicks, while the CS could lie with Kompany and City on the road.
Chelsea’s schedule doesn’t really improve until Gameweek 8, away to Palace. Can we count on attacking returns against the likes of Arsenal and Man City before the Blues schedule looks a bit kinder. There are currently no midfielders at £7.0 I desire in my starting XI. There are some good, short term, budget options that have started well, but not proven the likes of Alonso.
Keeping with my 5-2-3 formation, Alonso would transfer in, becoming a cornerstone in my defense. Kompany would be the defender giving way, which would leave me with Jesus as the only City asset remaining in my squad.
This point hit would leave me with a zero budget ahead of the international break, with a possibility of activating the wild card for GW4. In order to make this move worthwhile, an attacking return would be needed from Alonso, especially if both teams keep a clean sheet.
Thankfully we have one more day to mull over the option of “hitting it early!”