The Ogletree Factor

This year, maybe we call it “The Ogletree Factor” as owners fly to the waiver wire and then to their fantasy football sources to see if they should grab Dallas wide receiver, Kevin Ogletree. The short answer, no. Why should you? Chances are you draft is just about a week old, can you really tell me that picking up a WR3 based off one game is going to improve you over the course of the next 16 weeks?

Last year we had a similar situation take place on the opening night of the NFL as Green Bay hosted New Orleans. A rookie by the name of Randall Cobb thrilled the Packer faithful with a 108-yard kickoff return and caught 2-35 and 1 TD. That night, followed by the next few days, owners were wanting to know the same thing. “Should I pick up Randall Cobb? He is available on the waiver wire.” Yeah, as he should be, just like Ogletree. We are one game into the season, as Michael_8256 on the FFS Forums said, “Don’t over-think it!

Stealing another saying from Michael, which I subscribe to, “it’s a marathon not a sprint” as it relates to the season. Don’t be worried if you team starts slow or players you expected are not scoring as you had hoped early in the season. Maybe you end taking a few loses or played a particular match up instead of playing your studs. Weekly on FFS owners pose starter questions, most of which receive quite a bit of input. Even with all the opinions of other forum members, go with your gut. If you feel strongly about a play, then play them. You do not have to agree with the opinions you get on the forums, you asked for input and feedback was provided.

Another fantasy fopaux owners make, rushing to the waiver wire. Stop! Don’t do it! Unless you have suffered a season ending injury chances are high (not impossible) a wire pick up before the start of the season won’t help you. Of course there are cases where this has been wrong. Example, 2010 an owner in our league drafted Montario Hardesty, who torn an ACL picked up Peyton Hillis, who went on to rush for 1177 yards and 13 TDs. Again, those are rare instances.

Go into a new fantasy football season with a little patience and remember to take into account The Fantasy Football Law of Averages as described by Russ Bliss on Fantasy Football Staters. Don’t chase a get one week performer, like Ogletree in this case. The law reads:

This is a law that dictates there are only so many yards and TD’s to go around and mediocre guys who have really good weeks will have to have really bad weeks later on to average their stats out. It also works in reverse for good and/or great players. Those who have really bad weeks will have to have some really good ones to again, average it out by seasons end.

That describes players like Ogletree and Cobb, who went on to score no more TDs after his opening night performance. So exercise a little patience with your team, give them time to perform. Don’s be surprised if it takes 3-4 weeks to see some players get up to speed and start performing.

While I am against using the waiver wire, it is a necessity these days. Long gone are the days of the 4 supplemental picks we used to get after every 4 weeks of the NFL season. These days the waiver wire is continually being used by owners in nearly every league. In the league I run, I don’t open the wire until AFTER the conclusion of the first week. I see no reason an owner should be hitting the wire immediately after a draft. The exception, an owner who loses a player to a season ending injury. You can see who I am targeting by reading Watch List #1.

In the end, even those we like bragging rights over our friends and taking their money. In the words of Michael_8256, “remember…its Fantasy Football, its suppose to be fun…there are 800 things more important that it!

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