Premier League: DGW36 Plan

Amazing the amount of variables to take into account, when just a few short weeks ago when I posted Premier League: Seeing Double and my plans for the run in to DGW36 and DGW37. With change in the wind, injuries on the pitch and questions surrounding form, formation and fixtures I have taken a risky route over the next few weeks.

Just 5 players remain from the plan I formulated prior to GW33. With already have played my WC in GW21, it would be a string of hits in order to get the proper personnel in place to take advantage of the DGWs. Original thought was to triple up on Man City, but the injury to Aguero and the rotation risk of Sane tempered my transfers. However the return of Jesus has sparked interest in City for DGW37.

Before moving ahead, let’s take a look at DGW36 and who isn’t in my starting XI or even on my squad. The two most notable names, Gabbiadini and Sanchez. Based on recent form, neither deserve a starting spot. Since returning from injury Gabbiadini hasn’t been the same offensive threat we saw when he made his move from Serie A. Even when at Napoli he wasn’t a prolific scorer; 5 goals in 23 games last year and just 3 goals in 13 this season before the transfer.

So’ton’s DGW schedule isn’t kind, facing Liverpool (A) and Arsenal (H) in GW36 followed by Middlesbrough (A) and Man United (H) in GW37. I fancy that the Boro match up is their only favorable fixture, a team they defeated just 1-0 back in GW15. Rumors of discontent are running through the team, as well as the impending return of Austin from injury and the veteran, Long off the bench to steal minutes.

The exclusion of Sanchez doesn’t come without risk, the league’s top scorer (214) has been omitted, in fact I didn’t have him included when I wrote up my original plan during GW33. Earlier this season, I felt Sanchez was indispensable (read Sanchez Effect) and before running the stats, felt NOT including Sanchez was a reason for my lack of performance. The reality of the situation, he would have contributed approximately 59 points over the gameweeks I didn’t have him versus the players I did start in his place.

The last 6 weeks have been his worst run of the season, with just a single return in GW33 (7 pts). How does he warrant a place in the starting XI? Wenger is now experimenting with formation, Sanchez is still playing wide left, but is he just playing out of the season before moving on? Based on the reverse fixtures against Man United and So’ton, he totaled just 2 points! Looking ahead to GW37 he posted returns of 5 and 13 against Stoke City and Sunderland. If fantasy managers see that sort of return in GW37 using the triple captain chip, they should be elated. However I feel there are stronger, in form players to start in the midfield. The one component you can’t take away from Sanchez is his explosiveness.

For GW36 I have taken a 12 point hit. That hurts, it’s bad enough I have been on a nasty string of -8 points hit (6 out of last 7 weeks), which feels as if it has become the norm. Unfortunately, these hits come at a cost of limiting my climb up the global rankings. However the returns have been positive with just a single red arrow since GW27, last week in GW35. Still sitting at 651k, is considerable lower than I anticipated to be at this point in the year. Still, take the good with the bad and look forward to the next fixture. I finger a poor run of form starting GW8 through GW13 as a reason for my current ranking.

As for the GW36 squad the changes have come up front, as I moved out Benteke and Gabbiadini this week in favor of Costa and Jesus. To free up enough budget, I said good bye to Zaha and brought in Fraser from Bournemouth. The other addition this week was introducing Stephens for Gibson and getting his price bump early in the week.

Costa now pairs with Hazard for the double and a great run in through the end of the season, with just a single away game remaining. He picked up just his third double of the season in GW34 but his form seems to be returning.

Jesus seemed to be a no brainer, as Aguero limped off the pitch last week after a solid performance with a groin injury. Jesus returning to pitch after injury has looked great in just 2 appearances. Dynamic and excitable and very favorable fixtures to finish the season. This kid could post some great returns before the season is up. Games include Palace (H), Leicester (H), West Brom (H) and Watford (A). He will also wear the armband for my squad this weekend.

The inclusion of Costa, Jesus and Stephens set me up for DGW37 leaving just 4 players who don’t have a DGW next week. When the transfer window opens for DGW37 I will look towards upgrading my defenders. Bailly and van Aanholt will be out and I’ll be looking at Man City and Chelsea defenders. It doesn’t appear I will have the budget to include one from each team. The decision will hinge on what I do with Jakupovic. The sole player remaining from GW1 will possibly be move for either Cech or Courtois. If I get Courtois, then it will be the budget defender, Holgate with no DGW to fill the final defender slot.

Premier League: DGW Double Take

Leading up to DGW34 I had been planning, scheming and strategizing on how to navigate GW34, GW36 and GW37. With DGW34 in the books, I have a solid core group of players to carry me through the end of the season. My previous article, Seeing Double had me favoring a Man City trio, not paying much attention to Arsenal or So’ton, each who play 4 games in GW36 and GW37. Injuries and a rethink seemingly have brought me full circle and now I have established, what I feel, is a good plan. Still, we need to get through GW35, but here’s how things are laid out.

GW35
OUT: Lukaku, Llorente
IN: Afobe, Benteke

Notes: While neither player have a DGW remaining, both are in form and feel they deserve to be in the starting XI. Benteke has Burnley (H) this weekend and Hull (H) in GW37, that’s enough for me. Man City hasn’t been all that impressive on defense, and Palace could nip a goal or two in that match. Afobe may seem an odd pick, but a budget forward, has 5 returns in the last 7 games, which includes 3 goals. Remaining fixtures include Sunderland (A), Stoke (H), Burnley (H) and Leiceter (A). We know Eddie Howe loves his offense, Bournemouth are safe, goals could fly! His inclusion frees up budget for use in DGW36.

GW36
OUT: Zaha, Gibson
IN: Sanchez, Holgate

Notes: Still high on Zaha, but I need to free up a midfield position in order to bring Sanchez in, who’s potential is too much to pass up. After GW35, it could be feast or famine for the Chilean, but DGW37 holds hope, Stoke (A) and Sunderland (H). It’s a case of I would rather be with, than without on the off chance he scores big. To free up the remaining funds, Holgate (4.1m) comes in with CS potential in GW36 and GW37.

This is what my squad looks like for GW36, which would carry over to DGW37.

Not sure what Big Sam’s intentions are with van Aanholt. I picked him up for DGW34, but saw limited play in just one game. Injuries have taken a toll on the Palace defense, but Schlupp still holds a starting spot. Depending on taking another hit in GW36, van Aanholt could make way for Jagielka, who was in my original plans, like Holgate has CS potential in GW36 and GW37, plus has some offensive prowess with 3 goals on the season. Fuchs, Yoshida and Bailly will constitute the rest of the defensive line due to DGW37.

We are still a few weeks out from DGW37, anything is possible. Not too surprising to see how drastically plans have changed in the matter of 10 days, when I posted Seeing Double. The possibility of City players still exists, but with the uncertainty surrouding who to start, they have all taken a seat on the bench for now. We will wait and see what GW35 brings before formulating a new plan…if needed.

Premier League: Seeing Double

The current EPL season comes down to two weeks, as managers either planned or are scrambling to navigate the the DGWs in GW34 and GW37. Many managers have held their second WC and Triple Captain Chip until GW36 in order to maximize their opportunity for a big return. For me, I activated my WC in GW21 and my Triple Captain Card was applied to Aguero in GW27 for just 27 points. Managers were hoping to Sanchez would continue his run of form and triple captain him against Stoke City and Sunderland in GW37, but based on his last 3 fixtures (before GW33), it appears he might not be the best option.

Here is my current squad as of GW33, before any transfers for GW34:

Since GW25 I have made 16 transfers with seven 8 point hits during this period. My season turned the corner in GW27, when I started a run of 7 green arrows that has seen my global ranking climb 947k to 682k! This run of success has me pushing for the top spot in both mini leagues, where I sit in 2nd and 5th place.

With the help of Navigating the Double Game Weeks I formulated my strategy for the rest of the season. Using this article as a template I started looking forward to DGW34 and DGW37 in an attempt to maximize returns to end the season on a strong run. While it’s not the best DGW plan, moving forward without a WC means I miss out on potential points or risk take a -4 or -8 point hit in order to see a higher return each week. So far the additional transfers I have made have equated to a positive return of 15 points over those 7 weeks. Not great, but at least I wasn’t negative.

GAMEWEEK 34
Transfer OUT: Grosicki, Hazard, Mawson
Transfer IN: King, Sane, Van Aanholt

Notes: Transferring Hazard will free up the addition budget I require to kick off this strategy. While they do have a favorable DGW in GW37, I feel there are stronger midfielder available with better fixtures. Grosicki, has been good for Hull, at home. While the Tigers need help, there has not been enough scoring to justify retaining his services. Mawson served his purpose, picked up a few goals, but Swansea is struggling…still. No DGWs and a mixed schedule, didn’t like those prospects.

King and Sane come in on good form, more importantly with good fixtures ahead of them. King could be seen as a questionable selection with no DGWs but home matches against MID, STK and BUR. After GW34, City has a great looking schedule, thus the inclusion of Sane, who will face CRY, LEI, WBA at home and MID and WAT on the road with a DGW in GW37. Van Aanholt, back from injury could be a strong differential candidate. While the fixtures for DGW34 don’t justify it, his style of play could benefit Palace against Liverpool. His inclusion is based on GW35 and GW37 home to BUR and HUL.

GAMEWEEK 35
Transfer OUT: Llorente, Eriksen, Lukaku
Transfer IN: Gabbiadini, Sterling, Aguero

Notes: What could be seen as questionable transfers come to the forefront in this week. Llorente has been a waste of space, injured for 2 weeks and no returns in 4 weeks. Eriksen, really? Even now I have a hard time making this transfer happen, as he has been fantastic this season! Good returns since GW26 and a challenging DGW in DG37, I would rather hold Alli and Kane as the attacking pieces of my squad. Finally Lukaku, the Belgian has been outstanding…at home but atrocious on the road, just 12 points in his last 4 away fixtures. With 3 of the last 6 on the road and a home match against Chelsea, I can’t justify keeping him in the starting XI.

Gabbiadini hit the EPL in grand form, 4 goals in 3 EPL games before succumbing to injury. He’s got DGWs in GW36 against LIV (A), ARS (H) and GW37 against MID (A) and MNU (H). Sterling will come in to partner with Sane for City with LEI and WBA at home in DGW37. Aguero is the final piece of this offensive puzzle, but not sure if that piece will fit, with the word that Jesus could be returning. That could call into question Aguero and his playing time or worse, rotation. It is Pep in charge, but with no UCL and Aguero in form, Jesus might be called upon from the bench. Thankfully I have a few weeks to wait and watch.

GAMEWEEK 36
Transfer OUT: Gibson, Heaton
Transfer IN: Vertonghen, Courtois

Notes: The defense gets an overhaul, as Gibson makes way with no DGW in GW37 and a terrible schedule after GW34 there were better options. Heaton has been masterful between the sticks and with good fixtures to finish the season, like Gibson Burnley doesn’t have a DGW.

Vertonghen comes in for the final 3 weeks of the season, away to WHU and WBA and a DGW in GW37 against MNU (H) and LEI (A). He’s the cornerstone of the Spurs defense, his inclusion could be questionable depending on the return of Rose. Courtois, currently injured, returns to my squad as Chelsea look to win the EPL Championship. Three out of the last four games are at home with WBA and WAT in DGW37.

GAMEWEEK 37
Transfer OUT: Fuchs
Transfer IN: Monreal

Notes: The final piece is put into place, as Fuchs makes way for Monreal, who faces STK (A) and SUN (H) in DGW37. Arguably the best DGW fixtures in GW37. Not much for Arsenal defenders this year, at least Monreal gets forward in that wing back position.

CONCLUSION

The team above costs me 103.5m, leaving me with 0.7m ITB for unexpected changed. As I mentioned earlier, this plan looks great on paper, but how it actually plays out is another story. Potential injuries, falling out of form or the return of players from injury could change my strategy. I don’t move forward without concerns, most notably the “second coming” of Jesus at City. Not including Hazard (30.6%), Sanchez (24.8%) and Lukaku (46.9%) is risky, all are highly owned and all have been in form, Sanchez for much of the season, excluding the last 4 weeks. For DGW37, this gives me 8 players with two games, which potentially could be 9 players if I select Gabbiadini over King or Zaha.

While I don’t have it on paper yet, I am working on a contingency plan, which could include Townsend or a Chelsea defender. Up front if Aguero becomes a rotation risk I will make the move back to Ibrahimovic, but United’s DGW37 is tough; TOT (A) and SOU (A).

It’s a risky proposition, but many fantasy managers wait for the DGWs in order to make their moves, activating this WC and chips. Final note, speaking of chips, I only have my bench boost and all out attack remaining, as I played by triple captain chip back in GW27 on Aguero. GW35 I will plan on using my AOA chip nd GW37 will feature the bench boost.