Premier League: 5-3-2 Update

It’s been 7 days since I actually looked at my squad, as I inadvertently took advice seen on a fantasy since and stopped shuffling players in an attempt to build the “perfect team.” However, the time away from my squad didn’t clarify any transfers or secure any starters. I did get a chance to view the Community Shield, result aside the performances, or lack thereof only continued to muddle the current situation, as we are just 3 days away from the Friday opener.

As I jumped back in with two feet yesterday, I have continued to work around the players in a 5-3-2 formation. While not conventional, as say the 3-4-3 or the 3-5-2, I have faith this formation could prove worthwhile to start the season. Lots have been made of the lack of clean sheets to start past season and while that could potentially happen, I feel confident in how I am setting up the start of the 2017/18 EPL season.

Since my last article, 5-3-2 Midfield Rotation, a few weeks backs, I really haven’t made any extreme changes to my squad, but there are questions that have gone unanswered and potential transfers to make before GW1 begins. Since the backbone of my squad is defense, I will start at the back. Here’s the current starting 5 defenders:

Alonso (£7.0m) still anchors my squad, as I have decided to double up on Man City starting Kompany (£6.0) and new boy, Danilo (£5.5). He was brought in after Trippier suffered an ankle injury and could be sidelined for a period of time. City has good fixtures to start the season and Danilo will see starting time with Mendy not quite ready to play. Yoshida (£5.0)has replaced Cédric (£5.0), as he has just rejoined the squad after the Confederations Cup and there is some question as to him starting. Yoshida provided good value last season, scoring goals, recording CS and gaining much needed bonus points. My final defender, Valencia (£6.5), who was upgraded from Bailly (£6.0), as he doesn’t provide much offensive threat, but is probably the strongest of the defenders for United not to be rotated.

As we head toward Friday, Alonso has a big question mark next to his name. Not because of his £7.0m price tag, but because of the poor defensive showing Chelsea has shown during pre-season. As a side note, it’s interesting that I seem to put more emphasis on poor performances during these early friendlies. Yet just like good performances, both can come back to bite you in the ass. The Chelsea defense is virtually unchanged, the addition of Rüdiger from Roma appears to strengthen the defense, starters on Sunday were unchanged.

Downgrading Alonso to a £6.0m or even a £5.5m would free up budget to potentially resolve a bigger problem in the midfield. Defensively, dropping Alonso from the starting XI would not give me any Chelsea defenders, not that it’s entirely a bad situation, as their early run of fixtures aren’t great (BUR, tot, EVE, lei, ARS, sto, MCI), playing 4 of the top 7 teams from last season. Replacements could include Kolasinac (£6.0m) or Bertrand (£5.5m), leaning toward the late based on So’ton outstanding early fixtures, but would also be doubling up on another set of defenders. Arsenal have a good opening 10 games, having to face LIV (A) in GW3 and  CHE (A) in GW5.

Saving as little as £1.0m would allow me to look for another option for the injured and potentially, off to Barca, Coutinho (£9.0m). Neymar moving to PSG could start a domino effect and the next one to fall could be Coutinho departing the Reds, leaving their squad without a rudder to guild them this season. This would put my squad in a bind as I don’t believe in Liverpool’s other £9.0m option, Salah, who makes his return to the the EPL, still unproven in the league. Sure, his numbers were solid in Serie A, but this is England and competition is more fierce and his Chelsea days were exactly productive for any number of reasons. None of the cheaper options look inviting to anchor the midfield.

With budget saved on the defense, I would look at a £9.5m-£10.0m in the midfield. I did have fleeting thoughts to double up on Spurs, selecting Eriksen over Alli. Both players are priced at £9.5m but do face CHE (H) and EVE (A) in GW2 and GW4. The other £9.5m option is Mané of L’pool. He would fill Coutinho’s spot nicely, but I don’t see him as the playmaker type but has the potential to put up solid numbers. Instead I am looking at City and De Bruyne (£10.0m). Probably the safest bet in the midfield, he commands a hefty price tag, but could be worth the investment considering the players he has around him. Not to mention he hit the goal post 9 times last season to along with his 6 goals and 21 assists.

Currently Pogba (£8.0), Willian or Fabergas (£7.0m) and two £4.5m, non-playing midfielders round out this position. As explained before, I plan on a rotating these midfielders in the early game weeks based on strength of schedule and home fixtures. The current rotation plan is through GW6:

Much of this is pure speculation and conjecture at this point, but I feel more confident going into GW1 with a plan of action, in an attempt to maximize points based on fixtures. Lots can change between GW1 and GW4 and I could be activating my WC by this period if the 5-3-2 formation is failing. However, if it’s rewarding me weekly and I’m climbing in the overall rankings (OR), I should see a rise in my overall team value (TV). By GW6 I am anticipating a TV of £101.6, based on last year’s data. However with this plan in place, I can’t chase those hot players weekly who’s price may be on the rise.

The ‘5 at the back‘ option is still alive and kicking and I feel very confident starting the season with it. It’s different but still conforms to some template players but the defenders will the differential as to how I start the season. The budget breakdown is as follows:

The budget breakdown is balanced and allows to move players in and out almost at will. There is enough allocated at each position that a simple 1 for 1 transfer could occur. The move for KDB over Coutinho, would allows 4 further moves, moving up the £10.0m price bracket. Currently, I don’t plan on moving Kane or Lukaku outside of injury. Alonso though, is the key. Do I keep him and run out Coutinho? Or move Alonso in favor of a cheaper So’ton option in the rear guard and start KDB. Questions still abound and Friday is quickly approaching.