Premier League: Excessive Hits

Over the course of the EPL season I have been attempting to justify my poor performance; EuroCup 2017 fatigue, inconsistency with big name players and lackluster defenses, not selecting the right players, but through it all one constant has remained. Hits. Hits. And more hits. For the season I have 72 total transfers, an addition 37 transfers over the course of the season for 148 points! When I look at my Overall Points (1949 thru GW37) and my Overall Rank (517,067) it comes as no surprise why I have struggled. It wasn’t until I started to break down the numbers using FPL Statistico that I realized why I didn’t climb in the global rankings as I thought I would.

The numbers appear staggering when you realized what that -4 or -8 point hit truly costs when you look at the numbers on a week by week basis. Let’s take a look at GW6. I transferred De Bruyne, Snodgrass and Aguero in for Hazard, Cazorla and Ibrahimovic out.

I started De Bruyne and Aguero, who I captained, while Snodgrass was the budget midfielder. Together they finished the week with 38 points. Of those I transferred out, they combined for 7 points for a difference of 31 points. Since Snodgrass didn’t start, I gained only 36 with my two starters but also took an -8 point hit and netted 28 points. That was an example of a worthwhile -8 point hit.

Unfortunately we must take the bad with the good and over the course of the year I had 11 weeks in which that extra transfer(s) didn’t pay off, resulting in a negative result or no gain. The worst example was GW35. I took an -8 point hit to bring in Benteke, Gabbiadini and Caballero for Llorente, Lukaku and Heaton.

Aside from a bad week for the incoming transfers, those I transferred out scored 7 points more. Once we add in the -8 point hit, I finished the week with a -15 points. It would have been more advantageous to hold those three players for another week. Yet, that is a chance you take when you look at taking a hit. On paper, Man City looked like a good bet for goals and a clean sheet, but Middlesbrough played them to a 2-2 draw. Gabbiadini against Hull City was substituted off at 58 minutes, while Benteke finished with a yellow card and was substituted at 70 minutes against Burnley. This after 3 goals in the last 2 weeks.

Starting with GW25 I took 100 points in hits, averaging -8.3 points a week. Not ideal by any means and it has cost me in the overall rankings, but I’ve had fun. From GW27 through GW34 I recorded 8 weeks of green arrows and improved my overall rank by 977k. Here’s how that 8 week run played out when the points were broken down.

During this 8 week snapshot there was just one week in which I finished with a negative return, GW28, which was -1 point. Overall I added 78 points to my overall total, by far the best run I had of the entire season. Interesting to note that the only other green arrow run I had on the season was from GW4 through GW6, which looks oddly similar to that of this late season push. The difference in the point hits, I activated my first Wild Card for GW5 but still took an -8 point hit the following week. Not the best use of the Wild Card, but at the conclusion of GW6 I was ranked in the top 29k!

Overall, I gained 180 total points on transfers which cost me points. Divide that up over 37 weeks and it averages out to 4.73 points per week. Not a great average by an measure. As cited above, sometimes the extra hit(s) paid off, but in 12 weeks it was a net zero or minus points. Just 8 weeks provided a double digit advantage when taking hits (including both WCs). Any net result that was less than 9 points would have me rethink making that extra transfer for a week. You can view all 38 weeks of the spreadsheet here. By far the extra hits contributed to not exceeding my score from 2015/16 of 2170 points, finishing the season with 2024, well off where I wanted to be.