Premier League: GW5 Retrospect

GW5 didn’t start off well, as I had four games streaming on NBC, only to see my players doing nothing on the pitch, thought there would be more 2 point performances. Thankfully I got called away, which was probably a blessing in disguise, as my players seemed to turn things around. Why is it? This seems to happen to us when we don’t watch our fantasy players? In 35+ years of playing fantasy (NFL) football and now 4 years of fantasy (EPL) football, my team ALWAYS does better when I don’t watch. Regardless, after I saw the final scores and ran down the scorers I decided to fire up the Premier League see just how poorly I did. To my amazement I had scored 52 points during a week the average was 26 points. I was quite pleased with the shift my team had put in for GW5. Sunday I still had three players remaining (2 from Man U and one from Watford), which would hopefully add to my total and put me further over the weekly average and another green arrow.

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Prior to GW5 I was dead set against a transfer, but the more I read and researched, the more I wanted to offload Costa, more for his piss poor attitude on the pitch (can’t knock his talent) than his performance and replace him with Lukaku because of Everton’s upcoming fixtures. Doing so would cost me in the weeks to come, as I would not be able to get Aguero back without taking a point hit. Instead of playing for the “later” I played for the “now” and made the transfer. It didn’t look good when Costa scored in the early game on Saturday, but Lukaku did not disappoint, as I gave him the armband! A goal, an assist and 3 bonus points for 24 points set things right. The move paid off, even more so as his value increased by 0.2!

With the Aguero transfer on hold for GW6 I changed my formation for GW5, going with a 3-5-2 and giving Capoue his first start since I picked him up for GW4, when I used my WC. Defoe (7.2) found himself the third forward, out of the starting XI. This move paid off as Capoue found the back of the net for the 4th time, beating DeGea, as Watford finished off Manchester United 3-1, ending a horrid week for Jose, 0-3 in all competitions. Antonio remained a “must have” with a goal in the 61st minute, assist from Payet, who remains on my watch list for now. Sterling also remained in great form, matching KDB (received 3 bonus points) with a goal and an assist, clean sheet and 2 bonus points. Both players are in the sort of form you can’t ignore but can you afford to have both AND Aguero? City has a good run of fixtures through GW13, outside the tilt with Spurs in 2 weeks. Push me for a decision now and I say De Bruyne stays and Sterling gets sold, at least that is my plan in a few weeks to get Aguero back as my top forward.

Defensively my team, as well as many managers have been frustrating with the lack of clean sheets. Tteams and match ups you figure are a guarantee end up resulting in that 1 goal that kicks chaos into your defense. That is where my defense is about now. When I used my WC  I brought in Collins, Williams, McAuley and Van Aanholt, with Valencia as the sole survivor. Did I give up too soon on Stones and Morgan? I don’t believe I did, as Stones still hadn’t done anything to validate his position on my squad. He didn’t start in GW5 and I could not see having a 5.0 defender on the bench. The Foxes weren’t winning and while Morgan is the stalwart of that defense, I was not happy with their upcoming fixtures. While I am fine with my defense, Collins and the West Ham defense has given up 8 goals in 2 weeks, Slaven Bilic has to gthinking of a defensive change, Collins might be on the way out (for Ogbonna), there goes a starting 4.6 budget defender. Thankfully Amat is still around and 0.5 cheaper, starting and jsuust 6 points off the 15 points Collins put up through GW5. Valencia, while dynamic for Man U, isn’t getting any offensive points and has only registered 2 clean sheets. His spot on my squad, at 5.5, might be in jeopardy to a more lucrative defender from Spurs or Everton, with 0.5 ITB, I might have a few better options.

Forwards haven’t been returning as anticipated, Zlatan scored his 4th last week, but missed some very good chances to add to his tally. This week it appeared to me that 11 individuals took the pitch for the Red Devils, but they failed to play as a cohesive unit. No better example than the collision in the box between DeGea and Smalling. That defined the day for Jose. Zlatan, was not Zlatan, he was flat, his play, unimpressive. His 61.9 TSB%  tells you many managers still believe in him and it’s better to fail with him than be without when he goes off for a big return. He is still the top forward (34 points) but a case could be made to transfer him in favor of Aguero, while retaining the services of Lukaku and Defoe. Next up for the Red Devils, Leicester, who have kept but one clean sheet on the year. Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs could frustrate Zlatan owners through GW15.

If I plan to run a 3-5-2 formation, then I cannot warrant Defoe being benched at 7.2 and feel the need to free up some money to improve the team defensively. As I mentioned, Spurs and Everton have a good run of games and it might be time to offload the Man U coverage. Budget forwards under 6.4 are plentiful, but none have been scoring reguarly; Wilson, Gray, Hernandez, Llorente and Austin are all possibilities that would allow me to free up money.

As for Aguero I might run without him through GW8. After a GW6 match up versus Swansea he faces Spurs (A) and Everton (H), the two best defenses in the league. Can they slow down Pep’s offensive machine? Sure I would give up a favorable game this week (as City plays Swansea twice) but the 9.2 on Lukaku and addition of DeBruyne might be a stronger combination than moving for Aguero.

To reacquire Aguero I would need to free up 12.4, as I have 0.5 ITB. Moving Zlatan (11.7) or more likely Lukaku (9.2) would still require a second move, either Sterling (8.3) or Defoe (7.2) and a budget forward or midfielder to replace them. Lukaku and Sterling free up 18.0 (including the 0.5 ITB). Moving Lukaku and Defore totals 16.9. This puts me in a bind to bring even a budget player in at either position. Snodgrass is 5.7, which means I am short 0.6 to bring back Aguero. The same plan fails if I attempt to transfer Diomande (4.6) in as my budget forward. While my team value has increased to 101.6 the budget won’t allow me the necessary moves to bring Aguero back for GW6. Moving Zlatan and Sterling would would get me Aguero and Snodgrass, which isn’t a better combination but still leave me 0.8 short if I wanted to reacquire Zlatan when their fixtures are more favorable.

With my GW6 move already completed last night, bringing in De Bruyne in order to get the price increase I will run out Zlatan and Lukaku for a second week in a 3-5-2 formation. Defensively Collins will be benched in favor of McAuley vs Stoke City. Valencia’s start is still questionable with van Aanholt and Collins as my remaining options.

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